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Journal of Virology, October 2004, p. 11272-11275, Vol. 78, No. 20
0022-538X/04/$08.00+0 DOI: 10.1128/JVI.78.20.11272-11275.2004
Copyright © 2004, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand,1 Statistical and Data Analysis Center, Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts,2 and Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Children's Memorial Hospital, Northwestern University Medical School, Chicago, Illinois3
Received 5 March 2004/ Accepted 10 June 2004
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= 0.778d1, range = 0.583 to 1.088, half-life 1 [t11/2] = 0.894d), while the second phase revealed results similar to those of previous studies (median µ = 0.026d1, range = 0.005 to 0.206, t21/2 = 9.316d). This indicates that mega-HAART can provide potent therapy among heavily experienced pediatric patients. |
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The potency of therapeutic regimens is reflected in the rate at which viral load decreases during the first few days after initiation of treatment (phase 1 viral decay) and during subsequent treatment (phase 2 viral decay) (4).
However, studies of viral dynamics in children provide little information concerning the potency of mega-HAART among children who have failed HAART regimens (8, 9). Extrapolation from adult viral dynamics studies to pediatric populations can be problematic because of various factors including the following: (i) greater viral burden in children, (ii) higher CD4 counts and the decrease of these target cells with age in children, (iii) differences in pharmacokinetics, and (iv) differences in viral replication.
The primary objective of the present study was to estimate the HIV decay rates among HAART-experienced children who have failed therapy and who have been changed to mega-HAART regimens. We hypothesized that these regimens would be relatively potent in the initial phase of viral reduction and would continue to reduce viral load during the second phase, despite the viral resistance which would be expected in such a group of subjects.
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View this table: [in a new window] |
TABLE 1. Baseline characteristics and phase 1/2 viral kineticsa
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Statistical analysis. Preliminary data analysis consisted of graphic displays of the data, based upon the basis spline smoothing method (5). The primary analysis of plasma RNA data utilized the biphasic viral dynamics model proposed by Wu and Ding (13).
The basis spline smoothing method is a nonparametric technique used to examine data, with respect to pattern and distribution, without prior distribution assumptions. The graphic display of patterns in the data is informative for subsequent model fitting and parameter estimation (5).
The statistical model used to estimate viral decay rates can be written as follows: V(t) = P1 ed1t + P2 ed2t + e(t), where d1 and d2 are the first- and second-phase decay rates, P1 and P2 are macroparameters, representing baseline viral levels, such that P1 plus P2 is equal to the model estimate of the baseline viral load, and e(t) is measurement error.
This model does not include parameter estimates for the so-called "shoulder effect, " representing the delay between the onset of therapy and the time at which viral load begins to drop (6, 12, 13). Moreover, this method does not require the assumption of pretreatment steady state.
The nonlinear mixed-effects (NLME) model approach was used to fit this model (14). Comparisons of this method with other methods can be found in two recent papers by Ding and Wu (2, 3). The nonlinear mixed-effects model approach uses all data points together to get population estimates of the decay rates (fixed effects); it then uses individual data to estimate parameters accounting for patient variability in decay rates (random effects); finally, it combines them to get empirical Bayes estimates of each patient's first- and second-phase viral decay, denoted as d1 and d2.
The half-life of the two phase decays can be calculated as follows: H1 = ln(2)/d1 and H2 = ln(2)/d2.
Written informed consent for the Children's Memorial Hospital Institutional Review Board was obtained. The children were admitted to the Children's Memorial Hospital Clinical Research Center before the new mega-HAART therapy was started. Blood was drawn (for baseline determination) just before the first dose of the new regimen and every 6 h for the first 3 days, every 12 h on days 4 and 5, and every 24 h on days 6 and 7. Blood samples were also taken on days 14, 28, and 84. At each time point, HIV RNA copies per milliliter was measured by the RT-PCR Roche Amplicor assay.
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Results from the NLME analysis.
The results of modeling RNA change among the six study subjects are shown in Fig. 1. Note that the model fits each patient's data quite well. The first- and second-phase estimates of viral decay rates are presented in Table 1. The first phase estimates are relatively steep (median
= 0.778d1, range = 0.583 to 1.088, t11/2 = 0.894d) in comparison with those found in a previous study which included experienced children (3) (median
= 0.43d1, range 0.18 to 0.77, t11/2 = 1.6d) and compare favorably with those reported from adult studies which have used standard HAART therapy (10-12). The second-phase viral decay estimates (median µ = 0.026d1, range = 0.005 to 0.206, t21/2 = 9.316d), while similar to those observed in previous pediatric studies, should be interpreted with caution, since only three patients had complete data for the phase 2 time periods.
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FIG. 1. HIV-RNA from the six patients (dots) and the fitted curves based on the basis spline smoothing method. Right panels, HIV-RNA from the six patients (dots) and the corresponding fitted trajectories using NLME modeling.
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The first-phase elimination of the sensitive component of the virus leaves a residue of resistant virus and/or virus from latently infected cells. Change in this residual component of the virus is estimated by the phase 2 decay rates. In the present study, these rates were comparable to those reported in pediatric studies involving children who were less experienced and were treated less aggressively (8, 9). Thus, although the heavily experienced patients in the present study may have had greater viral resistance than subjects in previous pediatric studies, the quantity of medication administered in the mega-HAART regimens might have been sufficient to overcome resistance and/or prevent its emergence. However, the findings presented here may also reflect a complex effect in which therapeutic activity against virus from latently infected cells and/or moderately resistant virus outweighs the replication of highly resistant virus. Our interpretation of the results may be limited by the small sample size of only six patients and further studies are needed.
The results presented here reflect data gathered in the first 84 days following initiation of mega-HAART treatment. While not part of the present study, clinical follow-up information was available for four of the study patients. In patient 3 therapy was discontinued within 2 weeks of study completion, due to a potential interaction between the mega-HAART regimen and initiation of therapy for atypical mycobacteria infection. Patient 5 maintained viral load suppression for 6 months but then broke through due to major problems with compliance. In two patients (1 and 2), the viral suppression achieved by day 84 was maintained for 26 and 25 months, respectively.
These results suggest that mega-HAART, or multiple-combination antiretroviral therapy, can dramatically increase the first-phase viral decay rates in experienced children and provide further benefit during the second phase of viral decay. For patients who tolerated the mega-HAART, it continued to be effective during prolonged follow-up. Thus, mega-HAART is an attractive form of salvage therapy for experienced patients who have failed previous HAART regimens.
This work was supported in part by grant no. RR-00048 from the National Center for Research Resources, National Institutes of Health.
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