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Journal of Virology, April 1999, p. 2938-2946, Vol. 73, No. 4
0022-538X/99/$04.00+0
Copyright © 1999, American Society for Microbiology. All rights reserved.
Acute Hepatitis C Virus Structural Gene Sequences as Predictors
of Persistent Viremia: Hypervariable Region 1 as a Decoy
Stuart C.
Ray,1
Yu-Ming
Wang,2
Oliver
Laeyendecker,1
John R.
Ticehurst,3,4
Stephen A.
Villano,1 and
David L.
Thomas1,*
Departments of Medicine1 and
Pathology,3 Johns Hopkins University
School of Medicine, Baltimore, and Center for Devices and
Radiological Health, U.S. Food and Drug Administration,
Rockville,4 Maryland, and Department of
Infectious Diseases, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical
University, Chongqing, Peoples' Republic of China2
Received 9 November 1998/Accepted 4 January 1999
 |
ABSTRACT |
We hypothesized that hepatitis C virus (HCV) persistence is related
to the sequence variability of putative envelope genes. This hypothesis
was tested by characterizing quasispecies in specimens collected every
six months from a cohort of acutely HCV-infected subjects (mean
duration of specimen collection, 72 months after seroconversion). We
evaluated 5 individuals who spontaneously cleared viremia and 10 individuals with persistent viremia by cloning 33 1-kb amplicons that
spanned E1 and the 5' half of E2, including hypervariable region 1 (HVR1). To assess the quasispecies complexity and to detect variants
for sequencing, the first PCR-positive sample was examined by using a
previously described method that combines heteroduplex analysis and
analysis of single-stranded conformational polymorphisms. The ratio of
nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions
(dN/dS) within each sample was
evaluated as an indicator of relative selective pressure. Amino acid
sequences were analyzed for signature patterns, glycosylation signals,
and charge. Quasispecies complexity was higher and E1
dN/dS ratios (selective pressure) were lower in those with persistent viremia; the association with persistence was strengthened by the presence of a combination of both
characteristics. In contrast, a trend toward higher HVR1 dN/dS ratios was detected among
those with persistent viremia. We did not detect any such association
for factors that may affect complexity such as serum HCV RNA
concentration. HVR1 had a lower positive charge in subjects with
persistent viremia, although no consistent motifs were detected. Our
data suggest that HCV persistence is associated with a complex
quasispecies and immune response to HVR1.
 |
INTRODUCTION |
An estimated 170 million people
worldwide are infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) (3),
which may cause cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (2, 24, 35,
53). Viral persistence is central to HCV pathogenesis. Even
though HCV-specific humoral and cellular immune responses are evident
within months of exposure (7, 30, 37, 55), HCV RNA remains
detectable for more than 20 years in the blood and livers of up to 85%
of infected people.
It is plausible that HCV persistence relates to viral diversity during
acute infection. Mathematical models of viral kinetics estimate that
more than 1012 virions are produced each day in an infected
person (39). Rapid replication and the absence of RNA
polymerase proofreading result in accumulation of mutations at a rate
of 0.4 × 10
3 to 1.2 × 10
3 base
substitutions per site per year (1, 41, 42, 49). Consequently, many distinct but highly related variants coexist in the
blood and liver of an individual, indicating that HCV exists as a
quasispecies (23, 34, 51). Mutations may change an encoded
amino acid (nonsynonymous) or result in the same amino acid
(synonymous). Assuming that nonsynonymous mutations may allow immunologic escape (13, 59) and synonymous mutations have no
direct immunological impact, the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous
mutations may reflect the relative immune pressure at a locus (6,
47).
HCV diversity is greatest in the putative envelope genes, especially in
a 27-amino-acid segment at the amino terminus of E2, designated
hypervariable region 1 (HVR1) (21, 22, 28, 54). We
hypothesized that individuals who clear viremia have an immune response
directed against more conserved regions and that people who develop
persistent infection have a more complex initial quasispecies. Hypotheses regarding acute HCV infection are difficult to test because
acute HCV infection in humans is difficult to detect (patients are
usually asymptomatic) and because experimental infection of chimpanzees, the only animal model, infrequently results in persistent viremia (4). In addition, the traditional method of
examining viral complexity, namely, sequencing of viral clones, is too
cumbersome to be applied to large numbers of individuals.
Two recent developments enabled us to test this hypothesis. First, we
identified and characterized the long-term virologic outcomes for 43 individuals with acute HCV infection (55). Second, we
developed a method for efficiently and accurately characterizing the
HCV quasispecies (58). In this study, these resources were used to examine viral complexity and distortions in amino acid sequences of subjects with persistent viremia versus those with self-limited viremia. We also accounted for duration of infection and
controlled for other factors (human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]
infection, race, age, and frequency of drug use) that may affect HCV clearance.
 |
MATERIALS AND METHODS |
Study subjects.
Since 1988, approximately 3,000 former and
current injection drug users, including 50 subjects who acquired HCV
infection during follow-up, have been monitored in Baltimore, Md. In
the principal cohort (ALIVE) (57), 43 HCV seroconverters
were identified (56). In a second related cohort (REACH)
(16), there were seven seroconverters. After a median of
more than 6 years of semiannual follow-up subsequent to seroconversion,
two distinct patterns of viremia were noted. For seven subjects HCV RNA
was undetectable for a minimum of 2 years in at least four serum
samples from each person. In contrast, for 43 subjects HCV RNA remained
detectable in the last specimen tested. The viral load trajectories and
temporal sequence of HCV RNA and levels of antibody detected for the 43 subjects from the ALIVE cohort are described elsewhere (55).
Of the seven subjects with self-limited viremia, HCV RNA was never
recovered from one subject and was not amplified in E1 from a second,
leaving five case subjects for further virologic study. HCV RNA
characterizations for these 5 case subjects were compared with those
for 10 control subjects chosen from 29 subjects exhibiting HCV
seroconversion and having persistent viremia for at least 6 years
(eight subjects did not have sufficient follow-up to be classified as
persistently viremic). Case subjects and controls were matched for
HIV-1 serostatus, race, age, and active versus inactive drug use, in
that hierarchical order, based on the theoretical and empirically
recognized effects of these factors on viral persistence. They are
herein designated by letters of the alphabet.
Storage of serum and testing for anti-HCV.
All serum samples
were centrifuged on site, stored for less than 1 week at
20°C, and
subsequently stored at
70°C. They were tested for antibodies to HCV
(HCV EIA 2.0; Ortho Diagnostics, Raritan, N.J.) and, if these results
were positive, by a strip immunoblot assay (RIBA HCV 2.0; Chiron
Corporation, Emeryville, Calif.), as previously described
(56).
Generic detection of HCV RNA.
For all HCV seroconverters, we
evaluated the presence of HCV RNA in sera collected 6 months before
seroconversion, at seroconversion, and at a median of eight additional
semiannual visits (55). HCV RNA was initially detected by a
quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) assay (AMPLICOR HCV
MONITOR; Roche Diagnostic Systems, Branchburg, N.J.), the linear range
of which was determined to be 500 to 500,000 copies per ml of serum by
our and other laboratories (18, 45). Results below the
linear range of the quantitative assay were assigned a value of 250 copies per ml and, when additional sample was available, were tested
again with one of two qualitative RT-PCR assays: an assay using an
AMPLICOR HCV detection kit (Roche Diagnostic Systems) and an in-house
nested-PCR assay using primers representing conserved sequences of the
5' noncoding region (52). With the latter assays, the limit
for detecting a subtype 1a reference strain (Hutchinson)
(41) was approximately 100 copies per ml. In this study,
data were analyzed for the first serum sample from which HCV cDNA was amplified.
Envelope region amplification.
An HCV RNA characterization
for each of 15 subjects was based on examination of 33 1,026-nucleotide
cloned cDNAs spanning the region thought to encode envelope protein E1
and a segment of the E2 region, including HVR1 (Fig.
1). RNA was extracted from 100 µl of
plasma or serum by using acid guanidinium thiocyanate (58).
The RNA pellet was washed with 75% (vol/vol) ethanol, briefly air
dried, and then redissolved in 50 µl of diethyl pyrocarbonate-treated water with 10 mM dithiothreitol (Promega, Madison, Wis.) and 5 U of
RNasin ribonuclease inhibitor (Promega). After incubation at 65°C for
5 min, 5 µl of purified RNA was used to generate cDNA in a 20-µl
reaction mixture at 37°C for 1 h with 20 U of Moloney murine
leukemia virus RT (Perkin-Elmer, Foster City, Calif.) and the
first-round PCR reverse primer. The entire 20-µl cDNA synthesis reaction mixture was used for the first-round PCR in a 25-µl reaction mixture containing 0.625 U of Taq polymerase (Life
Technologies), 1.5 mM MgCl2, 0.2 mM deoxynucleoside
triphosphates, and 0.4 µM primers. The primers (and positions
relative to the HCV-1 genome 5' terminus [12]) were as
follows: outer forward (positions 493 to 518),
5'-GCAACAGGGAACCTTCCTGGTTGCTC-3'; outer reverse (positions 1745 to 1723), 5'-GGGCAGDBCARRGTGTTGTTGCC-3'; inner forward
(positions 502 to 527), 5'-AACCTTCCTGGTTGCTCTTTCTCTAT-3';
and inner reverse (positions 1527 to 1507),
5'-GAAGCAATAYTGYGGRCCACA-3'. Degenerate bases are indicated
with standard codes of the International Union of Pure and Applied
Chemistry. The forward primers are based on the work of Bukh et al.
(8). Ten microliters of the first reaction product was used
as the template for the inner nested PCR. Thermal-cycling conditions
for both the inner and outer reactions were 10 cycles at 94°C for
10 s, 65°C for 30 s, and 72°C for 60 s, followed by 25 cycles at 94°C for 10 s, 65°C for 30 s, and 72°C for
90 s.

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FIG. 1.
Diagram depicting the studied portion of the HCV genome
and locations of the PCR primers (arrowheads) used in this study.
Positions are based on the work of Choo et al. (12). 5'NCR
and 3'NCR, 5' and 3' noncoding region, respectively.
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Cloning of cDNA and complexity analysis of 33 cloned cDNAs by gel
shift analysis.
The 1-kb HCV cDNA product was ligated into the
vector pCR 2.1 and used to transform I F' cells (TA cloning kit;
Invitrogen, Carlsbad, Calif.). Transformants were detected according to
the manufacturer's protocol, and cloning efficiency was >90%.
For each subject, the gel shift patterns of 33 cloned cDNAs were
examined by amplifying a 452-bp region spanning HVR1 and
by using a
nonradioactive method that detects distinct variants
within a sample by
a combination of heteroduplex analysis (HDA)
and single-stranded
conformational polymorphism analysis (SSCP)
in a single gel (HDA+SSCP)
(
58). Clonotypes are defined as cloned
cDNAs with
indistinguishable patterns of electrophoretic migration
by HDA+SSCP. In
our earlier study, the mean (± standard deviation)
genetic diversity
of cloned cDNAs belonging to the same clonotype
(intraclonotype
diversity) was 0.6% (±0.9%), with 98.7% differing
by less than 2%.
The complexity of the quasispecies was characterized
with the clonotype
ratio, calculated as the number of clonotypes
divided by 33, the number
of cloned cDNAs examined. The clonotype
ratio therefore varies from
0.03 (homogeneous) to 1 (highly
complex).
Sequencing and signature pattern analysis.
To examine each
subject's quasispecies for signature sequences (motifs uniquely shared
by a group of sequences) and for distortions in the ratio of
nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions
(dN/dS), a subset of cloned cDNAs
was identified for sequencing. For each subject, at least three cloned
cDNAs were selected for sequencing based on gel shift patterns: two
from the majority clonotype, one from each clonotype consisting of more
than 10% of the 33 cloned cDNAs examined, and the cloned cDNA with the
largest heteroduplex gel shift. Plasmid DNA was isolated from a 3.5-ml
broth culture (High Pure plasmid isolation kit; Boehringer Mannheim)
according to the manufacturer's protocol. Sequences from this DNA and
the forward and reverse primers were determined by using a PRISM
version 2.1.1 automated sequencer (Applied Biosystems Inc., Foster
City, Calif.). Sequences were assembled and edited with Sequencher
(Gene Codes, Ann Arbor, Mich.) by a technician who was unaware of our hypotheses. Primer sequences were removed prior to analysis. Signature pattern analysis was performed with the Viral Envelope Signature Pattern Analysis (VESPA) program (26).
Variability analysis.
A software program (VarPlot for
Windows) was developed by S. C. Ray to calculate values for
dN, dS, or the
dN/dS ratio in a "sliding
window" of nucleotide sequence. A segment of defined length, in this
case 60 bp (the window size), was used to determine the genetic
distance, or number of mutations per site. This process was then
repeated for an overlapping segment of 60 bp, which was shifted by 3 bp
(the step size), and continued across the alignment. At each step all
pairwise comparisons (up to 45) for a subject were performed and values
were averaged. The mean values for all subjects were then averaged,
ensuring that each subject was given equal weight. The method of Nei
and Gojobori (38) was used to calculate the nonsynonymous
genetic distance (number of nonsynonymous changes per nonsynonymous
site) and the synonymous genetic distance. The Jukes-Cantor correction
was used to correct for underestimation of distance due to multiple
substitutions at the same site (20). To determine the
dN/dS ratio, values for
dN and dS, the
dN/dS ratio for nonzero values of
dS, and then the mean
dN/dS ratio were calculated for each
subject. In a similar manner dN minus dS was also determined, except that the
calculation did not require discarding values when
dN minus dS was equal to
0. VarPlot is available from S. C. Ray on request
(sray{at}jhmi.edu).
Phylogenetic analysis.
The sequence alignment was randomly
permuted 100 times by using the SEQBOOT program from the PHYLIP
package, version 3.572c (14, 15). DNA distance matrices were
calculated by using the DNADIST program, maximum-likelihood model, with
a transition-to-transversion ratio of 4.25 (50). Permuted
trees were generated by using the NEIGHBOR program with random
addition, and bootstrap values were obtained by using CONSENSE. The
indicated subtype reference sequences used for phylogenetic analysis
had the following GenBank accession numbers: 1a, AF009606 and M62321;
1b, D90208; 1c, D14853; 2a, D00944; 2b, D10988; 3a, D17763; 4a, Y11604;
5a, Y13184; 6a, Y12083; "7a," D84263; "8a," D84264; "9a," D84265; "10a," D63821; and "11a," D63822. Proposed subtype designations are in quotes.
Statistical analysis.
After examination of the distribution
of data, statistical inference was made by using the nonparametric
Mann-Whitney test of medians. A P value less than 0.05 was
considered significant.
Nucleotide sequence accession numbers.
The sequences were
submitted to GenBank and were assigned accession no. AF118570 through
AF118632.
 |
RESULTS |
Subjects and initial sequence analysis.
No difference was
detected between case and control subjects in the matching criteria
(HIV status, race, age, and drug use activity) or the levels of HCV RNA
in serum (Table 1).
From 15 serum samples, representing the first specimen from each
subject in which HCV envelope RNA was detected, 63 sequences
were
obtained. All such sequences were 979 bp, except for the
sequences of
single variants from subjects F and BE, which had
a 3-bp deletion. For
case subject F, analysis was limited to 961
bp, due to a sequencing
artifact at the 3' end of the amplified
region. There were a total of
67 sporadic nonsynonymous substitutions,
defined as substitutions
occurring in only 1 of the 63 clones
sequenced, resulting in a sporadic
substitution frequency of 2.4
× 10
5 per
nonsynonymous site per PCR cycle. This frequency is consistent
with
that of expected artifacts of amplification (
48) and is
similar to the rate (3.5 × 10
5 per site per cycle)
calculated for another cohort (
36). Four
of these sporadic
substitutions resulted in termination codons.
Sequences from case
subjects and controls had the same rate of
sporadic
substitutions.
Phylogenetic analysis revealed that twelve subjects' sequences
clustered with subtype 1a, while those of the other three (D,
AW, and
BF) (Table
2) clustered with subtype 1b
(data not shown).
Both groups (subjects exhibiting clearance and those
exhibiting
persistence) had a 4:1 ratio of subtypes 1a and 1b. For all
15
pairs of sequences representing each majority clonotype,
intraclonotype
diversity was less than 1%, underscoring the
sensitivity of the
HDA+SSCP method.
Analysis of virologic determinants of viremia.
Because viral
envelope proteins are important determinants of tropism and
immunogenicity, we assessed the physicochemical properties of the
protein sequences deduced from the amplified sequences by using a
majority representative sequence for each subject (Fig. 2). HVR1
sequences from the subjects who cleared their viremia were
significantly more positively charged than those who did not (median,
+3 versus +1.5; P < 0.03).
There were 10 potential N-linked glycosylation sites (NXS or NXT)
present in the amplified region based on the HCV-1 and Hutchinson
sequences. These were highly conserved in all subtype 1a sequences
(Fig.
2). Subtype 1b sequences (from
subjects F, AW, and BF, as
well as reference strain HCV-J) shared 9 of
the 10 sites of HCV-1,
with loss of the site at position 476 and
addition of a site at
position 250. Sequences from subject BF also
carried an additional
site at position 478. N-linked glycosylation
sites were 100% conserved
among the sequenced cloned cDNAs from each
individual. Viremia
persistence did not correlate with predicted
N-linked glycosylation.
Likewise, there were 14 cysteine residues in
the amplified region,
and all 14 were conserved in 61 of 63 sequences;
the two isolated
exceptions were consistent with sporadic substitution.

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FIG. 2.
Alignment of inferred amino acid sequences for the
majority sequences from each subject. In the first column, an
alphabetical label is given for each subject, while in the second
column, C indicates clearance of viremia and P indicates persistence.
Periods indicate identity to the amino acid at that position in the
first sequence. Positions of the Core and E1 and E2 regions are
indicated above the alignment, whereas that of HVR1 is indicated below
the alignment at the N terminus of E2. Boxes indicate predicted
N-linked glycosylation sites. Cysteine residues in the first sequence
are underlined.
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To test the hypothesis that a signature sequence within the amplified
region is linked to clearance or persistence of viremia,
signature
pattern analysis was applied. One representative sequence
was chosen
for each sample. In all cases, one of the majority
clonotype sequences
also represented the consensus sequence at
each amino acid position for
that sample. Signature pattern analysis
identified eight amino acid
positions at which the majority amino
acid differed between case and
control subject sequences (Fig.
3).
However, at none of these positions was a residue uniquely
present in
either outcome group and, in all but one case, the
amino acids found in
the 15 HCV seroconverters were well represented
among 58 other HCV
sequences from GenBank. The one exception was
position 431, which
contained alanine in 7 of our 15 sequences.
The GenBank sequences
uniformly had an acidic residue (aspartate
or glutamate) at position
431; hence, none had an alanine at this
position. This residue may be a
feature of the regional (Baltimore)
epidemic from which the subjects
were enrolled; however, the proportions
of samples containing this
alanine were not different between
the two outcome groups.

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FIG. 3.
Comparison of the frequencies of amino acids in
consensus sequences for the 5 case subjects (group showing clearance)
and the 10 control subjects (group showing persistence of viremia). A
subscript indicates the number of sequences having that residue at that
position. Sites identified by using signature pattern analysis are
displayed; for sites not shown, the most frequently observed amino
acids (aa) did not differ between case subjects and control subjects.
Positions are based on the work of Choo et al. (12). Also
shown are the amino acids in these positions for 58 GenBank sequences
spanning the same region.
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Quasispecies complexity and the outcome of acute infection.
As
hypothesized, case subjects (who cleared viremia) had lower median
quasispecies complexity as measured by clonotype ratio than controls
(whose viremia persisted) (P < 0.05) (Fig.
4A). While no one who cleared viremia had
a quasispecies complexity value greater than 0.3, 3 of the 10 controls
had levels of complexity as low as those of the five case subjects.
Therefore, low quasispecies complexity may be necessary, but not
sufficient, for clearance of hepatitis C viremia, suggesting that other
factors may be important.

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FIG. 4.
Virologic correlates of outcome. (A) Clonotype ratio,
calculated as the ratio of the number of clonotypes detected to the
number of cloned DNAs examined (Table 2), versus outcome. (B) E1
dN/dS ratio versus outcome. For each
subject, all pairwise nonsynonymous and synonymous distances were
calculated for the E1-coding region. These distances were averaged, and
the dN/dS ratio was then calculated.
Horizontal lines represent medians.
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dN/dS ratios and outcome of
acute infection.
Case subjects had significantly higher
dN/dS ratios for E1 than controls
(P < 0.02) (Fig. 4B). This difference was decreased when the E2 segment was added to the analysis (data not shown), suggesting that the patterns of nonsynonymous substitutions differed in
the E1 and E2 regions.
Segmental differences in dN/dS
ratios.
To test the hypothesis that the regions under the greatest
selective pressure differed between case and control subjects, we
performed a high-resolution analysis of differences in
dN/dS ratios by using VarPlot. We
found generally low dN/dS ratios as previously observed (50), with values of less than 1.0 throughout the envelope region studied. Two notable distortions in the
dN/dS plots were observed: that in
an E1 segment centered on amino acid 310 in sequences of the case
subjects and that in a segment corresponding to HVR1 in sequences of
the control subjects (Fig. 5A). These high-dN/dS-ratio segments
corresponded to segments of high dN values (Fig.
5B) and were not due to differences in dS values (Fig. 5C). Results of an analysis based on the difference between dN and dS
(
d) was in agreement with results of the
dN/dS analysis, with positive values
being obtained for
d in E1 segments of case subjects and
in HVR1 of controls (Fig. 5D).

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FIG. 5.
Variability plots of the envelope region. For each
subject, the intrasample dN/dS ratio
(A), dN value (B), dS
value (C), or d value (dN dS) (D) was calculated for overlapping windows of 20 amino acids (aa; 60 nucleotides), sliding in increments of 1 amino acid
across E1 and the first 119 amino acids of E2. The mean values for each
group (clearance or persistence) were then plotted. Positions are based
on the work of Choo et al. (12).
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 |
DISCUSSION |
In this prospective study of subjects with acute HCV infection,
clearance of viremia was associated with lower early quasispecies complexity and a higher ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations in E1. In addition, subjects with clearance of viremia were segregated from those with persistent viremia by combining these two measures (Fig. 6). By using high-resolution
sequence analysis, we were able to demonstrate that the correlation
between clearance and nonsynonymous change in E1 was complemented by a
similar correlation between persistence and nonsynonymous change in
HVR1 (in E2), suggesting that HVR1 may act as an immunologic decoy
during acute infection.

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FIG. 6.
Ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous distances versus
clonotype ratio. Values from Fig. 4A and B were plotted on the same
graph, and a box (dotted line) is drawn around the points representing
values for the case subjects (with clearance of viremia).
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During acute infection, each individual develops a quasispecies, or
swarm of highly related viral sequences. While this may involve random
mutation with certain functional constraints, current evidence suggests
a more directed process. In a longitudinal study of three subjects,
HVR1 variation during the first 12 months of infection did not reveal a
common pattern of increasing diversity within each sample, though later
sequences did diverge from earlier ones, indicating the action of
selective forces (33). The direction of these changes does
not appear to be programmed by the viral sequence, because in a cohort
of persons infected from the same homogeneous source, each developed a
distinct quasispecies (36). While diversification may be
dependent on the characteristics of the virus, selection is a function
of the environment in which the virus replicates.
Diversification does not ensure evolution.
The genetic
sequences of HCV variants are very heterogeneous, varying by more than
30% across the entire genome among the six major genotypes, 20% among
subtypes, and up to 10% within a subtype (50). Within a
single infected individual, the diversity of viral variants varies
greatly, depending on the stage of disease and the genomic region
assessed, but even in acute infection it may be as high as 6%
(58). This profound variability is generally attributed to
the combination of three factors: an error-prone RNA-directed RNA
polymerase, a high rate of viral replication, and persistent infection.
Despite generating a large number of diverse progeny, a quasispecies in
a constant environment may not appear to evolve over
time
(
51). This predicted equilibrium has been demonstrated
in
HCV-infected chimpanzees, in which extremely limited change
in the
quasispecies was observed (
5,
9,
32); the lack
of genetic
drift appears to correlate with weak immune responses
in chimpanzees
(
54). Reduced evolution of the quasispecies has
also been
observed in immunocompromised humans (
27,
40). Thus,
the
progressive change of the distribution of variants in a quasispecies
requires an additional factor: selective
pressure.
Sequence variation as a result of selection.
We attempted to
reduce the number of variables, particularly those that would lead to a
bias suggesting selective pressure. We did this by controlling for
duration of infection and for the genomic region assessed and by
separately examining dN and
dS values. Case and control subjects had similar
durations of infection and concentrations of HCV RNA in sera (Table 1).
Because sequence analysis was restricted to intrasample comparisons of
the E1-E2 region, differential effects of RNA secondary structure (on
dN and dS) and protein
function (on dN) were minimized.
In addition, because results based on
dN, the
dN/dS ratio, and
d
(
dN minus
dS) led to
the same conclusions, we have addressed
concerns regarding which
indicator should have been used to indicate
selective pressure. While
many researchers have used the
dN/dS ratio or
d as surrogate indicators for immune pressure on
RNA
viruses (for example, see references
6,
43, and
60), there
is
disagreement over which calculation should be used and how
to interpret
the results (
44). In protein-coding regions, multiple
forces
affect the balance between fixation of silent (synonymous)
mutations
versus those that alter amino acid sequence (nonsynonymous).
Synonymous
changes are often thought to represent a "molecular
clock,"
independent of external pressures and expected to occur
at a rate
proportional to the organism's reproductive rate, whereas
nonsynonymous changes are selected by immune pressure. It may
be
difficult to interpret comparisons of values of
dN/dS or
d for
different genomic regions, due to unrecognized differences
in RNA
secondary structures (restricting
dS) or protein
functions
(restricting
dN). We controlled for
these effects by comparing
the same regions in different groups of
individuals and by demonstrating
the same findings for both the
dN/dS ratio and
d.
Had we demonstrated a correlation between clearance of viremia and
higher
dN/dS ratios for the entire
region (E1 and 5' segment
of E2) that we analyzed, we might simply have
concluded that stronger
antienvelope immune pressure was advantageous
for preventing persistent
viremia. However,
dN/dS ratios were similar among case
subjects
(those exhibiting clearance) and controls (those exhibiting
persistence
of
viremia).
While we found that case subjects had higher
dN/dS ratios for E1 alone (Fig.
4A
and
5A), controls exhibited a trend toward
higher HVR1
dN/dS ratios (Fig.
5A). These
reciprocal findings
are compelling and may indicate segmental
differences in the effects
of selective pressure. The latter finding
suggests that HVR1 can
function as an immunologic decoy, stimulating a
strong immune
response that is ineffective for clearing
viremia.
A curious result shown in Fig.
5C is the trend, most pronounced in the
control group, toward lower
dS values in the 5'
portion
of E1 than in a 3' segment of E1 (just preceding E2) and E2.
This
trend has also been observed with a cohort of women who received
HCV-contaminated anti-D immunoglobulin (
36) and by
cross-sectional
analysis of complete genome sequences (
50).
Lower
dS values
may indicate that the 5' portion
of E1 has some constraints on
synonymous variation, such as RNA
secondary structure or binding
sites for factors that regulate
replication or
translation.
Potential limitations.
The strength of our conclusions may be
limited by the small size and heterogeneity of the cohort, by
restricting our focus to a segment comprising approximately 10% of the
viral genome, and by current methods for assessing HCV replication.
However, we performed careful matching and followed up our subjects for a long period to ensure that clearance was durable. Although our results may not apply to all genotypes of HCV, because every subject in
this study was infected with genotype 1, heterogeneity among infecting
viruses may make our results more generally applicable than those from
a single inoculum (36). We cannot exclude the possibility
that our findings were due to interactions between mutations that we
characterized and those that occurred in another genomic region.
By matching our case subjects and controls for similar durations of
infection and finding similar concentrations of HCV RNA
in sera, we
hoped to have limited differences between the two
groups in viral
replicative cycles. Figure
5C shows, however,
a trend toward higher
dS values in E2 and a 3' segment of E1 in
the
control (persistence) group. There is evidence to suggest
that this
trend (
P > 0.05) indicates that more replicative
cycles
occurred in the control group, namely, our finding of greater
quasispecies complexity among controls and, from our study of
a larger
portion of the same cohort, an association between higher
levels of HCV
RNA in sera and persistent viremia (
55). Therefore,
despite
early sampling (median, 3 months after seroconversion),
the persistence
group may already have experienced more replicative
cycles than the
clearance group. If so, our conclusions would
not have been affected,
because of the reciprocal nature of our
findings (as discussed in the
preceding section): each group had
high
dN/dS ratios in different genome
segments.
Artifactual substitutions and template resampling.
Sequences generated from a quasispecies after PCR amplification
may include errors due to nucleotide misincorporation as well as
template resampling. Nucleotide misincorporation was estimated by
calculating the rate of sporadic nonsynonymous substitutions, which was
remarkably similar to those of previous reports (36) and
predictions (48). It is unlikely that nucleotide
misincorporation substantially affected the results of this
investigation, since the rates of sporadic nonsynonymous substitutions
were similar for case subjects and controls, who were examined by the
same methods. In addition, the use of the sporadic substitution rate as
an index of nucleotide misincorporation overestimates this error
because it also includes mutations genuinely present in the
quasispecies but observed only once.
Template resampling may result in underestimation of quasispecies
complexity when a small number of distinct genome templates
is used in
a PCR to generate sequence data. To evaluate the likelihood
of
resampling, the average number of distinct clones among
r
sampled
clones can be estimated by the equation
N[1

(1

1/
N)
r], where
N is the
number of molecules used as PCR templates (
31).
The average
and smallest numbers of templates (
N) in our study
were
1,000 and 5, respectively, and the number of sampled clones
(
r) was 33. The estimated number of distinct templates among
the
33 cloned cDNAs we examined was therefore 32 in the average sample
and as low as 5 in the specimens with the lowest concentrations
of RNA.
Because we used our HDA+SSCP method to identify three
to five distinct
cloned cDNAs for sequencing, it is unlikely that
the sequences analyzed
were affected by resampling. In addition,
because this source of error
relates directly to the template
numbers, which were similar between
the two groups, the comparisons
on which our conclusions were based
were not affected. Our finding
that there was no relationship between
complexity and HCV RNA
concentration supported these theoretical
considerations (data
not
shown).
Lack of power to detect differences in levels of viremia.
The
finding that the level of early viremia did not predict later clearance
was probably due to the small number of subjects. As noted above, a
larger study of the same cohort did demonstrate such a correlation
(55). In cross-sectional studies, high-level viremia has
also correlated with advanced liver disease (17) and failure
of interferon therapy (29). Importantly, our current and
previous findings (55) suggest that there is not a threshold of viremia above which persistent infection is a certainty.
Implications.
Our results offer some new insights into the
elusive mechanisms and parameters of HCV persistence. While previous
studies have linked HCV diversity with persistent infection, the
question of whether this diversity was the cause or the result of
persistent infection could not be addressed. In our cohort, higher
quasispecies complexity was apparent within months of infection in
those who developed persistent viremia. If abundant early replication
is a major contributor to this higher complexity, then it may be possible to prevent persistence by using early measures to limit replication such as antiviral medications. In contrast, if segmental targeting of the immune response is a major determinant of persistence, this may offer hope for an effective vaccine, because a vaccine that
reduces replication may be more achievable for HCV than one that
provides sterilizing immunity. A similar argument could be applied to
occupational exposures and other situations of known acute HCV
infection, such that therapy directed toward shifting immune
specificity or limiting replication might not prevent infection but
might alter its natural history.
The proposed role of HVR1 as an immunologic decoy is not easily
reconciled with prior evidence of an association between self-limited
viremia and early expression of antibodies directed against HVR1
(
25,
61). High-titer antibodies to HVR1 have been
demonstrated
to prevent HCV infection after in vitro neutralization,
but protection
was incomplete, possibly because of a minor population
of neutralization
escape mutants (
13). The role of a highly
variable domain as
a major immunologic target and neutralization
determinant would
be advantageous for HCV, like the putative role of
the HIV-1 hypervariable
domains. The V1, V2, and V3 hypervariable loops
of HIV-1 Env,
which contain neutralization epitopes, may protect
other more
conserved neutralization epitopes (
10) and
determinants of coreceptor
usage (
19).
An additional finding was a higher positive charge in HVR1 among case
subjects (who cleared viremia). While provocative, there
is not
sufficient information about an HCV receptor to place this
finding in
proper perspective. An association between pathogenetic
outcome and
HVR1 charge is reminiscent of the link between positive
charge in the
HIV-1 V3 loop and disease progression (
46). Because
too
little is known to suggest a biologically plausible role for
HVR1
charge, this finding should be confirmed with a similar,
independent
cohort.
Using a well-characterized cohort, analysis of a large number of HCV
variants, and high-resolution analysis of nonsynonymous
and synonymous
substitutions, we were unable to identify an envelope
sequence motif
that predicts clearance or persistence of viremia.
We did find
differences between the two outcomes in quasispecies
complexity and in
the segmental patterns of selection
pressure.
 |
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS |
This study was supported in part by National Institutes of Health
grant IU19 AI-40035.
We thank the participants in the ALIVE and REACH cohorts for
contributing the samples used in this study. J.R.T. thanks his Microbiology Branch (DCLD, ODE, CDRH, FDA) colleagues for their support.
 |
FOOTNOTES |
*
Corresponding author. Mailing address: Division of
Infectious Diseases, 720 Rutland Ave., Ross 1159, Baltimore, MD 21205. Phone: (410) 955-0349. Fax: (410) 614-9775. E-mail:
dthomas{at}welchlink.welch.jhu.edu.
 |
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Journal of Virology, April 1999, p. 2938-2946, Vol. 73, No. 4
0022-538X/99/$04.00+0
Copyright © 1999, American Society for Microbiology. All rights reserved.
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